Uber Eyes The Autonomous Future

Uber is positioning itself for the autonomous future. Early this morning, the company reported Q1 2025 earnings - profitability and free cash flow reached new highs despite lower-than-expected revenue. 

The numbers did not shock or awe. However, during its webcast, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi emphasized the company's strategic focus on autonomous vehicles as a significant growth opportunity. Khosrowshahi shared that robotaxis operating in Austin complete more daily trip requests than nearly all human-driven vehicles.

Uber’s future is autonomous, but first, let’s look at today’s figures.

The Numbers

• Revenue: $11.53B (+14% YoY)

• Gross Bookings: $42.8B (+18% YoY, Constant Currency)

• Net Income: $1.8B (vs. -$654M Last Year)

• Adjusted EBITDA: $1.9B (+35% YoY)

• Free Cash Flow: $2.3B

• Earnings Per Share: $0.89 (vs. $0.38 YoY)

Its large swing in net income is due to Uber Technologies recognizing unrealized losses in its investments in companies like Aurora, Grab, and Didi. Uber, being a public company, is required to mark-to-market its equity investments, although these are non-operating, non-cash line items.

As investors, we should not jump to conclusions about the major shift in Net Income.

Q2 2025 Guidance

The guidance Uber shared is in line with expectations. There was nothing significant about the outlook it shared. 

Uber expects the following figures in Q2 2025:

• Gross Bookings: $45.75B–$47.25B, reflecting 16% – 20% YoY growth

• Adjusted EBITDA: $2.02B–$2.12B

Uber Eyes The Autonomous Future

Uber is making partnerships left and right to position itself for the autonomous future. 

Earlier this week, Uber announced a partnership with Pony.ai to introduce robotaxis in the Middle East later this year.

Uber and WeRide will expand their robotaxi partnership to 15 new cities over five years, beginning with Abu Dhabi and Dubai. 

Last Fall, Uber partnered with Waymo to deploy 100 robotaxis in Austin and Atlanta. The autonomous vehicles in Austin outperformed 99% of human drivers by total daily trips. The pilot partnership exceeded expectations and the two will deploy hundreds of additional robotaxis in Austin and launch autonomous service in Atlanta over the coming months.

In April, Serve Robotics teamed up with Uber Eats to deploy more than 2,000 sidewalk delivery robots in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area. 

My Thoughts

Uber has achieved profitability at scale as it prepares for the autonomous future.

To me - this earnings report is inconsequential. It doesn’t mean much. Steve Strazza called it a “nothingburger” on today’s Morning Show. He’s right.

However - if the autonomous partnerships materialize as planned, Uber may fundamentally shift the economics of its business.

This morning, $UBER opened down ~4%. If the stock holds above $80, we want to accumulate shares to prepare for its next leg higher. Here’s the weekly chart.

Resources

Uber Announces Results for First Quarter 2025

Uber Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call + Supplemental Slides

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Godspeed - Rosebee

_{Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds $ACHR/W.}